🛬 Migration Mania: 88% Filler, 12% Function

9 Sept

🛬 Migration Mania: 88% Filler, 12% Function

Migration dominates the headlines. Growth, prosperity, housing booms—it’s the political protein shake: just add people and watch the economy bulk up.

But here’s the inconvenient truth buried beneath the spin:
Only 12% of Australia’s migration intake are genuinely skilled workers arriving from offshore.
The rest? A mix of family reunions, international students, and temporary visa holders already here.
In other words: 88% filler.

So when politicians say “skilled migration,” what they often mean is “people who’ve already been here for years, studying, working, or waiting.” It’s a game of visa musical chairs—not a targeted skills strategy.

🛠️ From Toolbelt to Textbook: The Vanishing Trade Migrant

Once upon a time, Australia’s migration program was a pipeline for tradespeople. Bricklayers, boilermakers, diesel mechanics—skilled workers who arrived ready to build, wire, weld, and contribute from day one.

Fast forward to 2025:

Trade migration has dwindled, replaced by a surge in international students and temporary workers
In 2023–24, Nepal alone sent over 207,000 students—many working part-time in hospitality or retail, not trades¹
Skilled Regional Visas are increasingly used for aged care and agriculture, not construction or manufacturing²
Most new arrivals in trades come from India, Philippines, UK, and South Africa³
We’re importing potential, not proficiency

📊 Migration Program Breakdown (2023–24)

(Source: Department of Home Affairs⁴)

Total permanent migration program: 189,820 places
Skilled stream: 137,100 places (74%)
Family stream: 52,500 places (28%)
Special eligibility: 400 places (<1%)
But only 12% of the total intake are genuinely new skilled workers from offshore
The rest are already in Australia or are secondary applicants

🎓 Temporary Visa Holders in Australia (2024)

(Source: Scanlon Migration Dashboard⁵)

2.9 million people held temporary visas as of December 2024
Includes international students, temporary graduates, working holiday makers, and skilled workers
These groups account for 84% of the increase in skilled employment over the past three years
Yet they’re underrepresented in official “skilled migration” stats

🧠 Citizenship Uptake by Visa Stream (2021)

(Source: ABS Migrant Settlement Outcomes⁶)

Skilled stream: 64% became citizens
Family stream: 48%
Humanitarian stream: 89%
Only 4% of migrants who arrived within the last 5 years had taken up citizenship
Highlights the long lag between arrival and integration

🧱 Trade Occupation Shortages (2025)

(Source: Australia Immigration News⁷)

Construction trades face a shortfall of over 120,000 workers
Trade-qualified migrants make up less than 15% of the skilled stream
Most trade-qualified migrants come from:
- India: motor mechanics, electricians
- Philippines: welders, carpenters
- Nepal: chefs, aged care workers
- China: ICT technicians, chefs
- UK: plumbers, builders
- Other (Vietnam, Sri Lanka, South Africa): mixed trades

📉 Growth for Whom?

Yes, migration boosts demand—for housing, groceries, and public services. But it also strains infrastructure, inflates rents, and deepens inequality. The real winners?

Property developers
Supermarket chains
Banks

The rest of us get longer hospital queues and pricier lettuce.

🧠 A Smarter Conversation

It’s time to stop treating migration as a GDP vending machine. Growth isn’t just about numbers—it’s about:

Quality of life
Skills alignment
Social cohesion

If only 12% of migrants are truly skilled newcomers, then maybe it’s time to ask:
Are we growing, or just expanding?

🧾 Footnotes

Greg Donoghue

🛬 Migration Mania: 88% Filler, 12% Function